Unfiltered Millennial

Throughout the horrors of war that we are seeing once again in the Middle East, I had a thought. Is the United States seeing a repeat of 1979 and 1980?

Now, a lot has changed in the 45 years since Jimmy Carter was the 39th President of the United States. But his presidency was a monumental one in ringing in a conservative revolution led by the California Governor and former actor Ronald Reagan.

The Democrats made many domestic mistakes, and the economy was being ravaged by an era of staggering inflation (13.3%). But the conflict between Isreal and Hamas today has me thinking to the foreign affairs mistakes of the Carter administration and how it didn’t help the Presdient’s reelection prospects. One crisis in particular comes to mind.

1979: Iran Hostage Crisis

On Nov. 4, 1979, Iranian students ambushed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took more than 50 U.S. diplomats hostage including the Charge d’ Affaires. The hostages were held for over 400 days through the next election. In fact, they were released just minutes after the inauguration of Ronald Reagan as the 40th President of the United States.

The negotiations and rescue attempts failed throughout the 444-day crisis. While the United States was united behind getting the hostages back. The failures of the Carter administration started to wear thin on the American people and America’s allies.

American allies were needing to address other issues. From a New York Times Article in 1981, “The invasion (by the Soviet Union) of Afghhanistan had provoked a new and far more direct international issue for America’s allies to consider. The hostage drama became familiar, the shock began to wear off and few people elsewhere realized how deeply offended and infuriated the American public remained.”

Later in 1980, the Carter administration authorized a rescue operation that would fail so miserably that Secretary of State Cyrus Vance (who opposed the operation) resigned. The failed rescue operation “stunned” the rest of the world according to the same New York Times article.

This crisis had two primary impacts on the 1980 election.

• Jimmy Carter was limited in his ability to campaign for reelection due to focus on rescuing the 50+ hostages.
• Carter and his administration were seen as weak and ineffectual when it came to American diplomacy.

The second point is my focus. A president has a very powerful bully pulpit in the United States and can effectively campaign from the White House unlike those seeking the office. But the perception of the Carter administration was much more damaging.

At a time when inflation was ravaging the domestic economy, an international crisis that couldn’t be solved for over a year seemed to become the final nail in the coffin of the Carter administration getting four more years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. While his approval ratings were bad throughout the election, Carter was actually winning the popular vote just seven days before the 1980 election. According to a late October Gallup poll, Carter led among both registered voters (8 point lead) and likely voters (three point lead). He ended up losing by 10 points in the popular vote.

Interesting fact about the 1980 election: It was held on Nov. 4, 1980, one year to the day when the Iranian hostage crisis began.

2024: Israeli and Hamas Conflict

So welcome to today in the United States. A country facing higher than usual inflation (nowhere near the levels of 1979). A population depressed by the prospect of a rematch between an indicted almost octogeniaran former president and the sitting president who is an octogenerian.

Yet, the biggest flashpoint for the Biden administration is the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and the Hamas terrorist group located in Gaza.

The conflict that started on Oct. 7, 2023, has now quickly surpassed six months. Much of it has been the Israeli response to Hamas’ initial attack. But how Israel has responded through their miltary might has come under scrutiny both in America and abroad.

Recently, three countries, Ireland, Spain and Norway, joined 140 other nations to recognize Palestine as a state. The International Criminal Court just submitted warrants against both Hamas and Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the meantime, Biden is trying to protect aid getting into the Gaza strip while also supporting Israel’s right to defend itself.

That defense has led to a wavering of support for the President’s administration. In a May 2024 Reuters Poll, only 34% of registered voters approve of Biden’s handling of the war. The bigger warning sign? 44% of Democrats disapprove of the President’s efforts.

Campus protests across the country, though about to die down due to the summer break, have been the very vibrant image of a democratic party deeply divided and conflicted between their historic support for Israel and the Jewish community and the humanitarian crisis brewing for palestinians. A divided party does not help the President’s already tenouous reelection.

Will Democrats Repeat History?

The similarities are daunting to ignore. A weakened economy due to inflation, a depressed electorate and a foreign crisis making American leadership look weak at best. So are democrats about to repeat history from 45 years ago?

Well let’s look at the polling, early I showed that Jimmy Carter was actually leading in polling just seven days out from the election. Biden? According to a Quinnipac poll from May 22, Biden is only up by one point. And, he is not facing a Ronald Reagan-esque candidate.

The one thing that Biden still has? Time. The Biden Administration is in need of significant change in the coming months, especially with the earliest general election presidential debate in history on the horizon. One of those things that needs significant progress? A light at the end of the tunnel on the Israeli and Hamas conflict. Otherwise, it may very well be the tipping point that ends the 46th president’s administration just like the Iran Hostage Crisis helped end the 39th president’s administration.